This is the fourth installment of my Road Warrior without an Expense Account series. The intent of this installment is to highlight the increased competition for the progressively decreasing full-time orchestral positions. The statistics I present here are only theoretical and may certainly differ from the exact number or audition openings and candidates, but they nevertheless serve as a demonstrative example of the current audition scene.

As always, I welcome any comments or elaboration on this post or any post in this series.

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As the actual number of full-time playing positions decreases with each passing year, the number of music school graduates seeking these positions increases. It is disturbing to see so much interest in the pursuit of this career coupled with the decline in positions available to these players. Approximately 700 new orchestral position candidates enter the audition circuit fresh out of music school each year. A reasonable estimate based on the orchestras that have folded each year would be that there are 10 fewer orchestral positions in the country than there were the year before.

The orchestras that comprise the International Conference of Symphony and Opera Musicians (ICSOM) employ a little over 4000 full-time professional orchestral musicians in the United States and Canada at the present. The Regional Orchestra Players’ Association (ROPA) consists of a combination of per-service and full-time orchestral musicians. Excluding the members of Canadian orchestras but factoring in the full-time positions of the ROPA conference, one can assume that there are approximately 4500 full-time orchestral positions in the United States.

The ICSOM conference is comprised of 52 orchestras and is made up predominantly of full-time orchestral positions, while the ROPA conference is comprised of 68 orchestras, with the bulk of the positions being per-service.

How often do these positions open up? Many factors come into play, but each full-time orchestra in the United States typically has a few vacancies per season. One may predict 150-200 auditions nationwide for full-time orchestral positions.

Many of these jobs are won by players who already hold a position in another full-time orchestra. It is quite common to see players “step up” through the ranks of full-time orchestras, starting with a full-time ROPA orchestra, moving to a moderately size ISCOM orchestra, and perhaps finally winning a job in a top 10 ICSOM orchestra.

How many new players does this system let in each year? How many hires are fresh faces not previously affiliated with any other full-time ISCOM or ROPA orchestra?

After bouncing some numbers around, I feel relatively safe in saying that there are approximately 100 openings for new faces in these orchestras each year. The actual number of auditions per year is higher than this figure, but many auditions are filled by people already holding another full-time position, so a safe estimate of the number of positions filled by new candidates would be 100 per year. This number is only an estimate, and the calculations that follow are for demonstrative purposes only.

Let’s start this calculation at zero—we’ll pretend that no one but these 700 new faces on the audition scene are looking for a job (yeah, right).

Year 1 – 14% chance of getting a job

700 candidates auditioning

100 available positions

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600 unsuccessful candidates

Now year two rolls around. You’ve still got those 600 candidates who haven’t won a job last year. Let’s assume that 300 people on the audition circuit quit looking each year. That would still leave 300 candidates from year one. This number may be low, but it may also be high. Most musicians I know audition for years and years before either quitting or else landing a job.

Year 2 – 10% chance of getting a job

700 new candidates + 300 old candidates = 1000 candidates auditioning

1000 candidates auditioning

100 available positions

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900 unsuccessful candidates

Those are still good odds, but watch what happens as time progresses. These figures also don’t consider any additional increase in music graduate numbers and don’t take into account the decline in available positions.

Year 3 – 8% chance of getting a job

700 new candidates + 600 old candidates = 1300 candidates auditioning

1300 candidates auditioning

100 available positions

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1200 unsuccessful candidates

Year 4 – 6% chance of getting a job

700 new candidates + 900 old candidates = 1600 candidates auditioning

1600 candidates auditioning

100 available positions

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1500 unsuccessful candidates

Year 5 – 5% chance of getting a job

700 new candidates + 1200 old candidates = 1900 candidates auditioning

1900 candidates auditioning

100 available positions

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1800 unsuccessful candidates

Year 6 – 4% chance of getting a job

700 new candidates + 1500 old candidates = 2200 candidates auditioning

2200 candidates auditioning

100 available positions

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2100 unsuccessful candidates

This pool of unsuccessful applicants continues to grow each year. Here is what things look like after a few more years:

Year 10 – 3% chance of getting a job

700 new candidates + 2700 old candidates = 3400 candidates auditioning

3400 candidates auditioning

100 available positions

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3300 unsuccessful candidates

At some point it is likely that more than 300 would quit per year, but I have certainly seen a trend of older and older players staying on the audition scene. Also, this doesn’t take into account and loss of potential positions (and these positions are undoubtedly shrinking).

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Why do I bring this up? Why spread gloom and doom? These are tough statistics, but I use them (and the history of the symphony orchestra in the United States) to illustrate what I see happening in the employment outlook for classical musicians. When musicians on the audition circuit can’t get full-time orchestral jobs, they often turn to (and have been turning to in increasing numbers) the regional orchestra world to find employment.

The absence of adequate employment for qualified candidates in full-time orchestras propels more top-notch players into the part-time regional orchestra circuit each year, with both positive and negative implications for both orchestra and player.

This will be the subject of Part V of Road Warrior without an Expense Account. Check out Part I (adjunct teaching), Part II (realities of professional freelancing), or Part III (the rise and fall of the full-time orchestra) as well if you are interested in this subject. As mentioned previously, Part V deals with regional orchestras, and Part VI covers difficulties associated with climbing the gig ladder. Part VII covers private teaching. Part VIII discusses the burnout that all too many freelancers face, while Part IX offers a rethinking of the tradition music performance degree. Part X ties up the series and draws some conclusions about the future of the classical music performance business.

References:

International Conference of Symphony and Opera Musicians website

Regional Orchestra Players’ Association website

ISCOM Wage Scales and Conditions in the Symphony Orchestra 2005-06

ROPA Wage Scales and Conditions in the Symphony Orchestra 2005-06

For further reading on issues facing the modern symphony orchestra, please check out:

Adaptistration – Drew McManus on Orchestra Management

Polyphonic.org – The Orchestra Musician Forum

Read the complete series:

• Part I – Adjunct University Teaching
• Part II – Realities of Professional Freelancing
• Part III – The Rise and Fall of the Full-Time Orchestra
• Part IV – Rising Tide, Shrinking Pool
• Part V – Regional Orchestras
• Part VI – The Vicious Cycle
• Part VII – Private Teaching
• Part VIII – Burnout
• Part IX – Rethinking Music Performance Degrees
• Part X – Refocusing (Musical Entrepreneurship)

Addendum I: The Real Cost of Driving to Gigs for the Freelance Musician
Addendum II: Tainting the Academic Waters with Pay-Per-Student Teaching